Navigating the currents of global consumer behavior offers a window into the soul of our economies, where every dollar spent tells a story of hope, caution, and transformation.
As we look ahead to 2026, a complex tapestry emerges, woven with threads of moderate global growth and evolving financial priorities that challenge old norms.
This article delves deep into how much people spend, where they allocate their resources, and how they balance spending with saving and investing across regions, ages, and incomes.
By exploring these dynamics, we aim to inspire readers with practical insights for making informed decisions in an ever-changing landscape.
The Macro Backdrop: A World in Cautious Motion
Global GDP growth is projected at about 2.7% in 2026, driven by sectors like retail and financial services.
However, household consumption remains relatively cautious in many major economies.
Consumers are maintaining elevated savings rates compared to pre-pandemic levels, signaling a shift toward financial prudence.
This caution is compounded by lingering inflation and modest real wage growth, which squeeze disposable incomes.
Yet, there are glimmers of support, such as less restrictive monetary policy and fiscal stimuli in regions like India and parts of Asia.
Governments are using tax cuts and lower goods taxes to boost income and consumption, creating a delicate balance between restraint and opportunity.
Global Spending Intentions: A Sharp Pullback Emerges
According to AlixPartners' 2026 Global Consumer Outlook, there is a sharp global pullback in spending intentions.
The net share of consumers planning to spend less versus more widened by over 60%, reaching an 18 percentage-point gap favoring reduced expenditure.
This trend is notable because it extends beyond typical frugal groups to include older and high-income consumers.
For instance, consumers aged 65+ project a 35 ppt net reduction, while high-income groups now expect a 5 ppt decline.
Only younger consumers under 35 globally anticipate net higher spending, highlighting a generational divide in financial optimism.
This data underscores a broader narrative of value perception under pressure and reallocation of resources.
Regional Spending Patterns: Divergence in Action
Spending plans vary dramatically across regions, reflecting local economic conditions and cultural attitudes.
- China shows a dramatic reversal from a prior +10 ppt net increase to an 8 ppt net reduction in planned spending for 2026.
- In the United States, consumers plan to cut back on categories like eating out, discretionary retail, travel, and fitness.
- The United Kingdom exhibits experience fatigue, with consumers willing to reduce spending on restaurants and retail if they perceive poor value.
- DACH regions (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) continue a trend of frugality, with tight discretionary spending.
- France is the most downbeat, with a net spending decline of 33 ppts.
- Italy sees a widened decline to -17 ppts.
- The Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, is an outlier with a +5 ppt net increase, the highest globally.
This regional mosaic illustrates how global forces interact with local contexts to shape consumer behavior.
Category-by-Category Shifts: Where Money Flows and Ebbs
Breaking down spending by category reveals critical insights into consumer priorities and pain points.
Groceries are the only category with net global growth, expected at +8% driven by value-based shopping rather than volume increases.
In contrast, non-food retail faces the largest projected decline at -24 ppts globally, with even steeper drops among older consumers.
Eating and drinking out see the second-largest contraction at -21 ppts, as 31% of consumers globally feel restaurants do not deliver value for money.
Travel moves from a modest increase to a -9 ppt net reduction, while fitness and wellness show higher loyalty and less cutback.
These shifts are summarized in the table below for clarity:
This table highlights the reprioritization and wallet reallocation consumers are undertaking to navigate financial strains.
Drivers Behind the Pullback: Five Forces at Play
AlixPartners identifies five key forces driving lower spending intentions, which offer practical lessons for consumers and businesses alike.
- Persistent financial strain: 65% cite lower disposable income as a reason for cutbacks in essentials.
- Value perception under pressure: Many feel that prices do not justify quality, especially in dining.
- Reprioritization and wallet reallocation: Consumers are shifting funds between categories to optimize value.
- A new era of frugality: Behaviors like "buy now, wait longer" are becoming more common.
- The weight-loss drug effect: GLP-1 medications are reshaping health spending in regions like the Middle East.
These forces underscore a global shift toward disciplined spending and smarter financial management.
Switching Behavior and Consumer Loyalty
In this environment, understanding what drives consumer loyalty is crucial for adapting to new realities.
Price remains the top switching trigger across all categories, but sector-specific factors also play a role.
- Grocery: Lowest loyalty; shoppers switch quickly for better prices and promotions.
- Non-food retail: Service, assortment, and omnichannel experience matter more.
- Travel: Safety and end-to-end experience drive choice.
- Eating and drinking out: Reviews and social proof heavily influence decisions.
- Fitness and wellness: Highest loyalty; consistent service quality is key.
This knowledge empowers consumers to seek better deals and businesses to enhance their offerings.
Regional Economic Insights: A Closer Look at the United States
Deepening the analysis, regional narratives like those from Deloitte provide added context for investment and spending.
In the United States, consumer spending is expected to see a modest boost early in 2026 due to factors like wage reimbursements.
However, beyond that, spending is forecast to slow, driven by less restrictive monetary policy and real wage gains.
Notably, the top third of higher-income households account for over half of consumer spending, highlighting economic inequality.
A quarter of US households live paycheck to paycheck, underscoring vulnerabilities despite aggregate resilience.
This paints a picture of consumer spending as a key driver of growth, yet one fraught with disparities.
What Consumers Would Do With More Money: Priorities Revealed
If budgets increased, consumers globally have clear priorities that bridge spending and saving.
- Travel and holidays: 32% would allocate funds here, seeking experiences over material goods.
- Saving money: 31% prioritize building financial security, nearly matching travel.
- Groceries: 14% would spend more on essentials, reflecting ongoing cost concerns.
- Fitness and wellness: 7% focus on health, indicating a growing emphasis on well-being.
This list shows that when extra money is available, saving is nearly as important as indulging in experiences, guiding readers toward balanced financial planning.
Navigating the New Consumer Landscape: Practical Steps Forward
To thrive in this evolving environment, both individuals and businesses can take actionable steps inspired by these trends.
For consumers, embracing a mindset of strategic frugality and value-seeking can lead to smarter spending and increased savings.
Consider meal planning to reduce grocery costs, or hunting for discounts in non-essential categories.
Investing in experiences that offer high perceived value, like budget-friendly travel, can enhance life quality without breaking the bank.
For businesses, focusing on loyalty drivers such as service quality and omnichannel experiences is key to retaining customers.
Adapting to regional nuances, like the Middle East's spending increase or Europe's frugality, can unlock new opportunities.
Ultimately, this global pulse invites us to reflect on our financial choices and align them with long-term goals.
By understanding these habits, we can transform uncertainty into empowerment, fostering a future where spending and investing coexist harmoniously.
