In the wake of COVID-19, it has become abundantly clear that preparing for pandemics is not a discretionary health line item but a cornerstone of global security and economic investment. The devastation wrought in human lives, disruptions to education, and cascading supply-chain shocks revealed vulnerabilities no nation can afford to ignore.
By reframing preparedness as a high-return investment rather than mere spending, policymakers and citizens alike can champion strategies that avert future crises, protect societies, and safeguard economic stability.
Why Pandemics Are a Global Security and Economic Threat
The scale of COVID-19’s impact defies simple description. Estimates now exceed tens of US$ trillions in economic losses worldwide, while excess deaths surpass 20 million. Yet the aftermath extends beyond direct mortality and GDP contraction.
- Long COVID is projected to impose a drag of roughly US$1 trillion per year on OECD GDP, accumulating at least US$7 trillion by 2030.
- Over 1.6 billion learners were disrupted by school closures in 2020, with lingering interruptions affecting 130 million students globally.
- Mental health burdens soared by 25% in the first year of the pandemic, and without intervention, rates of anxiety and depression may remain 20% above baseline through 2030.
- Routine immunization setbacks left 17 million zero-dose children in 2020, contributing an estimated 49,000 additional preventable deaths each year through 2030.
Analysts now warn that cutting health funding in favor of military or other budgets is a false economy. Uncontrolled outbreaks threaten national stability, disrupt global supply chains, and undermine political cohesion. Investing in health security is, therefore, inseparable from safeguarding domestic and international security.
Assessing the Risk: A Coin-Flip Probability Within a Generation
No one should mistake the next pandemic as a remote possibility. The Center for Global Development calculates a 2–3% annual chance—equivalent to roughly a 50% probability over 25 years—that a novel pathogen will spark a deadly outbreak. Multiple factors drive this heightened risk:
- Rapid urbanization and escalating global travel networks.
- Climate change and deforestation intensifying the wildlife–human interface.
- Emerging biological threats: antimicrobial resistance, lab accidents, or even deliberate misuse.
Viewed this way, preparedness planning resembles insurance against an almost coin-flip event within our children’s lifetimes. The choice is clear: invest now to avert catastrophe, or pay vastly higher costs later.
Bridging the Financing Gap: A Modest Investment for Massive Returns
Despite the urgent need, global funding remains dangerously underprepared. The WHO and World Bank estimate that a comprehensive comprehensive pandemic preparedness and response system requires US$31.1 billion annually. Current investments fall at least US$10.5 billion short per year, with low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) particularly exposed.
In 2022, external donors covered nearly 80% of prevention and response spending in low-income countries, underscoring a precarious dependence on volatile political cycles. Although investments in pandemic preparedness grew by over 30% annually from 2019 to 2022, spending on primary health care and sanitation actually declined, revealing a misalignment between vertical PPR efforts and wide-ranging health system resilience.
The reality is that an incremental US$10.5 billion per year—less than some military budgets—could close this gap and yield extraordinary savings in lives and livelihoods.
Recent Political and Governance Milestones
Global institutions have responded with new frameworks and agreements designed to fortify our collective defenses:
- Primary defenses (Care): Strengthening frontline health systems, community health workers, and One Health surveillance to detect and contain outbreaks early.
- Measure (Data): Building real-time risk monitoring systems, data analytics, and AI-enabled surveillance as data as a global public health security good.
- Govern (Novel governance): Establishing agile, inclusive, and trusted governance mechanisms that ensure equitable and timely access to vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics, backed by a robust accountability framework.
The 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement and 2024 IHR amendments codify these principles. They mandate transparent reporting during outbreaks, systematic genomic data sharing, and voluntary technology transfer to bolster local manufacturing capacity. A new Coordinating Financial Mechanism and a Global Supply Chain and Logistics Network aim to deliver surveillance laboratories workforce and supply chains where they are needed most.
Additionally, WHO’s unified coronavirus strategic plan integrates COVID-19 into long-term respiratory disease management, emphasizing sustained surveillance, targeted vaccination of high-risk groups, and readiness for emerging variants.
Turning Commitment into Action: Practical Steps for Stakeholders
To translate policy into practice, every sector must take concrete steps:
- Governments should allocate predictable, multiyear budgets for preparedness and integrate PPR into national health strategies.
- Donors must sustain and increase their support for LMICs, ensuring investments align with broader health system strengthening.
- The private sector can contribute through public-private partnerships, expanding manufacturing capacity, and investing in innovation for diagnostics and therapeutics.
- Communities and civil society should advocate for transparency, demand accountability, and participate in risk communication and local surveillance efforts.
At the individual level, staying informed, supporting vaccination campaigns, and championing equitable access can make a tangible difference. Collective vigilance today builds resilience tomorrow.
Conclusion: A Call to Invest in Our Common Future
The data are unequivocal: relatively modest, predictable spending now can avert trillions in losses and millions of deaths in the next major outbreak. Pandemic preparedness is not a luxury—it is a foundational element of national security, economic stability, and human solidarity.
By embracing health security as a global investment, we affirm our shared destiny. Let us seize this opportunity to build stronger systems, forge collaborative governance, and protect the rights of every community to live free from the fear of the next pandemic.
